000 FONT13 KNHC 232036 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 2100 UTC SUN AUG 23 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 11 17 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 11 32 38 32 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 63 78 58 46 44 NA NA HURRICANE 36 10 5 5 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 34 9 4 4 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 2 1 X 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 50KT 40KT 35KT 30KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 12 53(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 20 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ILE ST PIERRE 50 69 X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) ILE ST PIERRE 64 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) BURGEO NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURGEO NFLD 50 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) EDDY POINT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EDDY POINT NS 50 39 X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) EDDY POINT NS 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SYDNEY NS 50 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SYDNEY NS 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SABLE ISLAND 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH