000 FONT13 KNHC 221441 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1500 UTC SAT AUG 22 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 4 13 25 39 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 5 18 28 31 30 TROPICAL STORM 2 22 53 61 48 38 28 HURRICANE 98 77 41 16 11 6 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 44 59 34 13 9 5 2 HUR CAT 2 44 14 5 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 9 4 2 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 5 1 X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 75KT 65KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 31(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 10(10) 48(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 41(41) 26(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 38(38) 16(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 40(40) 6(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 11(11) 65(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X 3( 3) 66(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 15(15) 65(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X 45(45) 37(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HALIFAX NS 50 X 4( 4) 31(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) HALIFAX NS 64 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 70(70) 5(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) YARMOUTH NS 50 X 17(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X 14(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ST JOHN NB 34 X 26(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ST JOHN NB 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X 26(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 7 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NANTUCKET MA 34 15 17(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PROVIDENCE RI 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA