000 FONT13 KNHC 212039 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 8 12 25 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 3 23 25 28 TROPICAL STORM X 1 13 38 53 49 39 HURRICANE 99 99 86 59 16 14 8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 13 45 39 12 11 7 HUR CAT 2 34 35 27 14 3 2 1 HUR CAT 3 57 43 11 5 1 1 X HUR CAT 4 5 8 2 2 X X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 100KT 85KT 75KT 50KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 2(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 1(47) X(47) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) X(45) X(45) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) X(25) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 23(50) X(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) X(21) X(21) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 29(43) X(43) X(43) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 34(34) 36(70) X(70) X(70) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) X(30) X(30) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 10(55) X(55) X(55) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 10(25) X(25) X(25) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) X(23) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 67 3(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) BERMUDA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA