000 FONT13 KNHC 192030 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 2100 UTC WED AUG 19 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X 3 17 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 3 25 TROPICAL STORM X X 1 1 6 25 43 HURRICANE 99 99 99 99 94 69 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 4 7 21 30 12 HUR CAT 2 2 3 10 14 25 20 2 HUR CAT 3 32 31 42 40 31 15 1 HUR CAT 4 62 57 38 31 15 4 X HUR CAT 5 4 9 6 7 3 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 120KT 125KT 120KT 120KT 110KT 95KT 55KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 27(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 24(33) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 25(47) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 18(46) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 11(42) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 6(26) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 2(27) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 3(31) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 39(48) 3(51) X(51) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANTIGUA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE