000 FONT13 KNHC 180232 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 0300 UTC TUE AUG 18 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS ...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 3 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 4 TROPICAL STORM X 1 2 2 5 9 23 HURRICANE 99 99 98 98 95 90 70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 9 12 11 12 18 23 27 HUR CAT 2 54 34 26 24 22 24 19 HUR CAT 3 35 43 44 38 34 29 17 HUR CAT 4 2 8 14 21 17 13 7 HUR CAT 5 1 1 2 4 4 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 100KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 105KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 18(40) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN