000 FONT13 KNHC 170854 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 0900 UTC MON AUG 17 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 3 TROPICAL STORM 9 6 5 3 4 9 19 HURRICANE 92 94 95 97 96 90 77 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 74 42 21 15 16 22 28 HUR CAT 2 15 37 37 26 21 23 20 HUR CAT 3 2 13 30 37 35 29 19 HUR CAT 4 1 2 6 17 19 14 8 HUR CAT 5 X 1 1 3 4 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 85KT 95KT 105KT 110KT 105KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 2(13) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN