000 FONT13 KNHC 170255 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 0300 UTC MON AUG 17 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 2 TROPICAL STORM 21 10 11 7 6 8 18 HURRICANE 80 89 89 92 94 91 79 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 54 40 26 20 21 28 HUR CAT 2 7 26 31 30 24 22 20 HUR CAT 3 1 8 14 26 32 30 20 HUR CAT 4 1 1 3 8 15 16 9 HUR CAT 5 X X X 2 3 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 85KT 95KT 105KT 105KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN