000 FONT13 KNHC 161441 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 1 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 1 1 1 TROPICAL STORM 66 28 16 11 7 7 13 HURRICANE 34 71 83 89 92 92 86 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 32 56 47 32 23 20 25 HUR CAT 2 2 11 24 28 26 22 21 HUR CAT 3 X 2 10 23 28 30 25 HUR CAT 4 1 1 2 6 13 17 13 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 3 3 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 105KT 105KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE