000 FONT13 KNHC 202043 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 2100 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 3 7 X X X TROP DEPRESSION 9 17 20 23 X X X TROPICAL STORM 88 75 67 58 X X X HURRICANE 3 7 10 12 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 7 9 10 X X X HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 0KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 48 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE