000 FONT13 KNHC 192049 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008 2100 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 3 4 13 X X TROP DEPRESSION 12 15 10 11 23 X X TROPICAL STORM 86 75 68 61 51 X X HURRICANE 2 8 20 24 14 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 8 18 19 11 X X HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 45KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) X(21) X(21) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 1 9(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 13 37(50) 9(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 33 18(51) 4(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MOREHEAD CITY 50 1 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 22 7(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE