000 FONT13 KNHC 271818 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LORENZO SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 1800 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 34 3 16(19) 8(27) 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) TUXPAN MX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VERACRUZ MX 34 4 8(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 204N 960W 34 70 9(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 12 204N 960W 50 23 10(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) 12 204N 960W 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 203N 967W 34 26 27(53) 6(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 24 203N 967W 50 5 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 24 203N 967W 64 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 205N 975W 34 4 17(21) 8(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 36 205N 975W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 205N 975W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 210N 990W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 48 210N 990W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 210N 990W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55 55 30 20 0 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA