000 FONT13 KNHC 252154 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007 2215 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007 AT 2215Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13) LA PESCO MX 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) X(11) TAMPICO MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 7(14) 5(19) X(19) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 5(24) X(24) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 8(21) 4(25) X(25) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 214N 950W 34 10 12(22) 8(30) 5(35) 6(41) 3(44) X(44) 12 214N 950W 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) 12 214N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 212N 950W 34 8 14(22) 7(29) 6(35) 6(41) 3(44) X(44) 24 212N 950W 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) 24 212N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 210N 950W 34 7 14(21) 8(29) 6(35) 6(41) 3(44) X(44) 36 210N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) 36 210N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 208N 951W 34 6 13(19) 8(27) 6(33) 6(39) 3(42) X(42) 48 208N 951W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) 48 208N 951W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 205N 955W 34 4 9(13) 11(24) 7(31) 7(38) 3(41) X(41) 72 205N 955W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 72 205N 955W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 96 200N 970W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 8(20) 5(25) X(25) 96 200N 970W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 96 200N 970W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30 35 40 45 55 50 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN