000 FONT13 KNHC 151431 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082007 1500 UTC SAT SEP 15 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 170N 550W 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 12 170N 550W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 12 170N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 180N 565W 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 24 180N 565W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 180N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 190N 580W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) 36 190N 580W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 190N 580W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 205N 595W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) X(14) 1(15) 48 205N 595W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 205N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 225N 610W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 2(14) 72 225N 610W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 225N 610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 250N 630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 96 250N 630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 96 250N 630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 260N 640W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 120 260N 640W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 260N 640W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA