000 FONT13 KNHC 312031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 2100 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 39(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 2 56(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 7 17(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 52 X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 445N 573W 34 67 2(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) 12 445N 573W 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 12 445N 573W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 486N 497W 34 X 45(45) 5(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 24 486N 497W 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 24 486N 497W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 535N 405W 34 X X( X) 38(38) 9(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) 36 535N 405W 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 36 535N 405W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 570N 345W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 12(50) 1(51) X(51) 48 570N 345W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) 48 570N 345W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 600N 275W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 8(49) 1(50) 72 600N 275W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) 72 600N 275W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 620N 190W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 17(30) 5(35) 96 620N 190W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) 96 620N 190W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 120 640N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) 120 640N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 120 640N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 45 45 45 50 40 35 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE