000 FONT13 KNHC 311432 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007 1500 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 9( 9) 35(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 45(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 1 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BURGEO NFLD 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 45 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SABLE ISLAND 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 430N 597W 34 70 2(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) 12 430N 597W 50 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 12 430N 597W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 470N 527W 34 X 42(42) 8(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) 24 470N 527W 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 470N 527W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 512N 447W 34 X X( X) 46(46) 8(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 36 512N 447W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 36 512N 447W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 560N 360W 34 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 12(52) X(52) 1(53) 48 560N 360W 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) 48 560N 360W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 600N 275W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 37(39) 9(48) 1(49) 72 600N 275W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) 72 600N 275W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 96 620N 200W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) 5(37) 96 620N 200W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 96 620N 200W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 120 645N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 120 645N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 120 645N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 45 50 50 50 45 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE