000 FONT12 KNHC 060235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 9 13 23 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 56 49 46 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 42 41 40 32 NA NA NA HURRICANE 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 6( 6) 15(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 3 12(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 34 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER STEWART