000 FONT12 KNHC 131437 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012 1500 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 2 5 11 TROP DEPRESSION 17 11 9 9 7 17 25 TROPICAL STORM 80 76 69 57 51 57 50 HURRICANE 2 12 21 33 40 21 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 18 26 29 18 13 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 8 3 1 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 55KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 1(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JUAN 34 X 16(16) 8(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JUAN 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JUAN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 4 52(56) 5(61) X(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT THOMAS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 21 41(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) SAINT CROIX 50 2 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 4 19(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 8 5(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) AVES 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN