000 FONT12 KNHC 082031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 2 5 22 TROP DEPRESSION 1 2 1 1 7 17 33 TROPICAL STORM 67 49 27 24 49 57 42 HURRICANE 32 50 72 74 43 22 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 30 42 50 44 31 18 3 HUR CAT 2 2 5 16 19 9 3 X HUR CAT 3 X 2 5 9 3 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 2 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 75KT 80KT 70KT 60KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 8(33) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 29(50) 2(52) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 20(47) X(47) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 13(27) 1(28) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 6(39) X(39) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 15 18(33) 7(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BERMUDA 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA