000 FONT12 KNHC 100840 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072012 0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 4 7 10 14 TROP DEPRESSION 33 23 17 20 23 24 26 TROPICAL STORM 64 69 69 62 57 54 49 HURRICANE 1 5 11 14 14 12 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 9 12 12 10 9 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) X(16) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) X(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) X(23) X(23) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 1(31) X(31) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) X(35) X(35) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN