000 FONT12 KNHC 281447 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1500 UTC MON MAY 28 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 22 32 35 37 36 35 TROP DEPRESSION 63 56 44 31 19 15 11 TROPICAL STORM 32 22 23 31 38 41 39 HURRICANE 1 1 1 3 5 9 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 1 2 5 7 13 HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 2 2 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 X( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 3( 5) 9(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA