000 FONT12 KNHC 280833 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 0900 UTC MON MAY 28 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 13 21 29 32 31 29 TROP DEPRESSION 43 54 44 37 24 18 13 TROPICAL STORM 54 32 33 31 39 43 42 HURRICANE 1 2 2 3 5 8 16 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 3 4 7 14 HUR CAT 2 X X X X 1 1 2 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 X( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 5( 9) 11(20) 6(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN