000 FONT12 KNHC 270831 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 0900 UTC SUN MAY 27 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 3 17 24 32 36 37 TROP DEPRESSION 7 27 45 36 20 19 15 TROPICAL STORM 89 66 35 36 40 39 38 HURRICANE 4 4 2 5 8 6 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 4 2 4 7 6 9 HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 40KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) X(18) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) 1(17) X(17) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 15(19) 5(24) X(24) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 20(30) 2(32) X(32) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 11 11(22) 1(23) 7(30) 11(41) 1(42) X(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS 34 30 37(67) 2(69) 3(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) MAYPORT NS 50 2 10(12) 1(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MAYPORT NS 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 19 41(60) 1(61) 4(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) JACKSONVILLE 50 1 10(11) 1(12) 1(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 8(14) 3(17) 4(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ST MARKS FL 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN