000 FONT12 KNHC 261445 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 1500 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 6 13 28 41 44 TROP DEPRESSION 14 16 27 31 29 27 21 TROPICAL STORM 83 75 61 50 39 31 32 HURRICANE 2 8 7 7 5 2 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 6 6 5 2 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 4(15) 2(17) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 4(14) 5(19) 1(20) MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 5(10) 2(12) 1(13) 3(16) 5(21) 2(23) CHARLESTON SC 34 6 11(17) 5(22) 1(23) 5(28) 4(32) 1(33) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 6(18) 5(23) 1(24) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 16(19) 10(29) 5(34) 5(39) 3(42) 1(43) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 2 17(19) 25(44) 6(50) 5(55) 1(56) X(56) MAYPORT NS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 14(15) 23(38) 8(46) 6(52) 2(54) X(54) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 10(11) 15(26) 6(32) 7(39) 2(41) X(41) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 5(21) 2(23) X(23) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 34 1 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 4(19) 2(21) X(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) W PALM BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 1(16) X(16) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 9(17) 9(26) 2(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 2(26) X(26) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 2(26) X(26) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 1(17) X(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 1(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 2(14) X(14) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI