000 FONT12 KNHC 260242 PWSAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012 0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 4 10 24 36 46 TROP DEPRESSION 14 15 21 30 33 22 24 TROPICAL STORM 83 76 67 52 38 36 29 HURRICANE 2 8 9 9 5 6 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 7 8 5 5 1 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 2(11) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 11 5(16) 1(17) X(17) 1(18) 1(19) 2(21) WILMINGTON NC 34 8 9(17) 1(18) 1(19) 1(20) 2(22) 2(24) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 4(17) 1(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 5 13(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) 4(27) 1(28) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 12(13) 9(22) 3(25) 3(28) 5(33) 2(35) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 1(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 5(15) 5(20) 2(22) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 10(29) 6(35) 6(41) 1(42) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) 19(39) 7(46) 6(52) 1(53) MAYPORT NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 3(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 19(34) 9(43) 6(49) 1(50) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 16(26) 6(32) 8(40) X(40) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 6(20) 5(25) 1(26) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 5(19) 5(24) 1(25) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 6(19) 5(24) 1(25) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 4(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 6(19) X(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 11(22) 8(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 12(19) 8(27) 1(28) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 12(19) 9(28) 1(29) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 7(21) 1(22) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 7(19) X(19) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 6(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN