000 FONT12 KNHC 040232 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0300 UTC SAT SEP 04 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 3 9 14 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 17 22 29 27 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 76 66 55 49 NA NA HURRICANE 12 5 9 7 11 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 4 7 6 9 NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 15(15) 8(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BURGEO NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X 30(30) 7(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PTX BASQUES 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 2 39(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) EDDY POINT NS 50 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SYDNEY NS 34 X 32(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) SYDNEY NS 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 34 17 57(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) HALIFAX NS 50 X 34(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) HALIFAX NS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 88 5(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) YARMOUTH NS 50 36 22(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) YARMOUTH NS 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 4 58(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MONCTON NB 50 X 25(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) MONCTON NB 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 19 42(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) ST JOHN NB 50 1 20(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) EASTPORT ME 34 28 16(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) EASTPORT ME 50 3 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 21 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BAR HARBOR ME 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HYANNIS MA 34 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) HYANNIS MA 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 50 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) PROVIDENCE RI 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN