000 FONT12 KNHC 030233 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 6 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 3 20 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 2 16 47 60 NA NA NA HURRICANE 98 84 50 14 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 51 59 39 12 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 38 18 8 2 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 8 6 3 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 80KT 70KT 50KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 42(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 42(42) 32(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 1( 1) 85(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 50(50) 9(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 17(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 23(23) 45(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 52(52) 21(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 11(11) 23(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 60(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 19(19) 9(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 3( 3) 28(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BOSTON MA 34 X 18(18) 23(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) BOSTON MA 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 X 43(43) 35(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) HYANNIS MA 50 X 4( 4) 33(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 60(60) 30(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 10(10) 49(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 36(36) 15(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HARTFORD CT 34 X 18(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) MONTAUK POINT 34 1 50(51) 6(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW YORK CITY 34 3 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEWARK NJ 34 3 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TRENTON NJ 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ATLANTIC CITY 34 7 15(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALTIMORE MD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 35 8(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) OCEAN CITY MD 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 33 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NORFOLK NAS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 41 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NORFOLK VA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CAPE HATTERAS 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) MOREHEAD CITY 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN