000 FONT12 KNHC 021456 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 1500 UTC THU SEP 02 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 2 19 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 9 30 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 2 18 59 41 NA NA HURRICANE 99 98 82 30 10 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 17 49 24 8 NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 43 23 4 2 NA NA HUR CAT 3 62 34 8 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 34 4 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 115KT 100KT 85KT 65KT 40KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) X(32) X(32) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 29(29) 23(52) X(52) X(52) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 63(66) 8(74) X(74) X(74) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 30(30) 9(39) X(39) X(39) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 46(66) X(66) X(66) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) X(30) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 39(39) 29(68) X(68) X(68) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) X(31) X(31) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 16(65) X(65) X(65) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) X(26) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 11(11) 25(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 15(15) 13(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 36(36) 19(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X 1( 1) 59(60) 22(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 14(14) 29(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 1( 1) 70(71) 18(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 27(27) 30(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 1( 1) 53(54) 10(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 4( 4) 60(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 9( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X 8( 8) 22(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 9( 9) 17(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 24(24) 19(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) DOVER DE 34 X 22(22) 10(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) DOVER DE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 13(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 50(53) 6(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 4 12(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK NAS 34 9 42(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 11 45(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) NORFOLK VA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GREENSBORO NC 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 34 87 11(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) CAPE HATTERAS 50 10 45(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CAPE HATTERAS 64 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MOREHEAD CITY 34 83 3(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) MOREHEAD CITY 50 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 39 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA