000 FONT12 KNHC 290839 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 1 1 1 1 3 TROPICAL STORM 43 33 18 13 10 9 20 HURRICANE 57 66 82 87 89 90 75 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 53 48 35 28 26 30 HUR CAT 2 4 10 23 28 26 25 22 HUR CAT 3 1 2 8 18 24 27 18 HUR CAT 4 1 1 2 5 9 10 5 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 2 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT 105KT 105KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) PONCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 24(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) 30(35) 22(57) 2(59) X(59) X(59) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) SAINT CROIX 34 X 5( 5) 23(28) 14(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 26(28) 49(77) 5(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 4( 4) 48(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 23(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 23(26) 29(55) 3(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BARBUDA 34 5 62(67) 14(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) BARBUDA 50 X 35(35) 20(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) BARBUDA 64 X 11(11) 13(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ANTIGUA 34 4 42(46) 14(60) 2(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) ANTIGUA 50 X 16(16) 9(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ANTIGUA 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 3 17(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GUADELOUPE 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) DOMINICA 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARTINIQUE 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARBADOS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN