000 FONT12 KNHC 270836 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM EARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010 0900 UTC FRI AUG 27 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 1 1 X TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 8 4 3 2 2 TROPICAL STORM 90 78 65 45 30 22 15 HURRICANE 5 15 27 50 66 75 83 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 13 22 35 38 34 31 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 11 17 23 23 HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 4 9 14 21 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 4 7 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 75KT 85KT 100KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 3(22) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 2(16) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 2(23) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 1(18) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI