000 FONT12 KNHC 170849 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 0900 UTC MON AUG 17 2009 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 15 25 29 33 37 43 TROP DEPRESSION 64 54 46 39 33 27 26 TROPICAL STORM 30 29 27 29 30 32 27 HURRICANE 1 1 2 3 4 4 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 HUR CAT 2 1 X X X 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT 25KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 2(12) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) 2(12) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 2(13) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PONCE 34 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG