000 FONT12 KNHC 162041 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 2100 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 8 11 17 24 27 33 TROP DEPRESSION 58 46 35 38 32 26 25 TROPICAL STORM 39 44 49 40 38 40 34 HURRICANE 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) 1(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JUAN 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 1 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOMINICA 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS