000 FONT12 KNHC 160246 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM ANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022009 0300 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 3 21 19 23 TROP DEPRESSION 32 20 16 13 34 27 23 TROPICAL STORM 65 72 69 62 40 44 40 HURRICANE 2 6 13 23 6 9 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 18 5 8 12 HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 30KT 35KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) 1(16) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25) X(25) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 18(36) 1(37) X(37) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 17(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 9(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 10(10) 30(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 17(17) 28(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 19(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 29(30) 16(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 28(29) 11(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA