000 FONT12 KNHC 072049 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 2100 UTC FRI NOV 07 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 5 20 32 47 TROP DEPRESSION X X 1 19 31 32 29 TROPICAL STORM X 2 18 58 42 32 22 HURRICANE 99 98 80 17 8 4 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 23 46 13 6 4 2 HUR CAT 2 37 44 24 3 1 X X HUR CAT 3 55 26 8 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 4 4 2 X X X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 95KT 85KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 5(17) 6(23) 1(24) 1(25) ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) 8(25) 2(27) 1(28) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) 4(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) HAVANA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 3 20(23) 12(35) 3(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) CIENFUEGOS 50 1 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMAGUEY 34 2 27(29) 34(63) 5(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) CAMAGUEY 50 X 5( 5) 25(30) 5(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) CAMAGUEY 64 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 80 4(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) GRAND CAYMAN 64 28 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 19(23) 11(34) 1(35) 2(37) X(37) 1(38) MONTEGO BAY 50 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTEGO BAY 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 2 5( 7) 6(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) 1(19) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE