000 FONT12 KNHC 012051 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 9 23 40 62 74 82 TROP DEPRESSION 5 46 49 38 29 20 14 TROPICAL STORM 91 44 28 21 9 6 4 HURRICANE 4 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 1 1 X X X X HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 18 X(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 930W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 14 19(33) 3(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SHREVEPORT LA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 39 3(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GALVESTON TX 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN