000 FONT12 KNHC 010254 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 0300 UTC MON SEP 01 2008 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 4 29 49 60 69 TROP DEPRESSION X X 17 37 27 19 14 TROPICAL STORM X 9 62 24 14 13 8 HURRICANE 99 91 18 9 10 8 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 41 7 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 2 23 29 4 3 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 64 19 5 3 3 3 3 HUR CAT 4 6 3 2 2 2 2 3 HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105KT 85KT 50KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) 1(14) 1(15) 1(16) MONTGOMERY AL 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PENSACOLA FL 34 40 5(45) 1(46) X(46) 2(48) X(48) 1(49) PENSACOLA FL 50 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 60 6(66) 1(67) 1(68) 1(69) 1(70) X(70) MOBILE AL 50 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 75 8(83) 1(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) GULFPORT MS 50 24 13(37) 1(38) X(38) 1(39) X(39) 1(40) GULFPORT MS 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) BURAS LA 34 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 88 5(93) X(93) X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) BURAS LA 64 35 14(49) X(49) X(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 64 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) 1(96) X(96) JACKSON MS 34 11 36(47) 5(52) 1(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) JACKSON MS 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 86 11(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 55 32(87) 1(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 5 35(40) 1(41) X(41) 1(42) X(42) 1(43) GFMX 280N 910W 34 90 3(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) GFMX 280N 910W 50 34 8(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 910W 64 7 7(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) BATON ROUGE LA 34 66 30(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BATON ROUGE LA 50 12 69(81) 3(84) X(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 37(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 34 59 37(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NEW IBERIA LA 50 8 67(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 1(79) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 41(42) 6(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) GFMX 280N 930W 34 16 25(41) 4(45) 1(46) 1(47) X(47) 1(48) GFMX 280N 930W 50 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 27(28) 16(44) 4(48) 2(50) X(50) 1(51) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 5 44(49) 12(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 12(12) 8(20) 2(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GALVESTON TX 34 3 19(22) 11(33) 2(35) 1(36) 1(37) X(37) GALVESTON TX 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 1 15(16) 11(27) 3(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33) HOUSTON TX 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 1 11(12) 8(20) 2(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) FREEPORT TX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 7(10) 5(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) 1(23) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 1(14) 2(16) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN