000 FONT12 KNHC 312039 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 2100 UTC SUN AUG 31 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 19 40 56 67 TROP DEPRESSION X X 6 37 30 23 17 TROPICAL STORM X 1 58 31 20 13 8 HURRICANE 99 99 35 13 11 8 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 10 17 3 2 X X HUR CAT 2 8 28 4 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 74 48 8 4 4 2 2 HUR CAT 4 16 12 6 3 3 3 3 HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 110KT 100KT 60KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VENICE FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 8 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) 2(15) GFMX 290N 850W 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) PANAMA CITY FL 34 13 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) 1(21) 1(22) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) PENSACOLA FL 34 32 14(46) 2(48) X(48) 1(49) 1(50) 1(51) PENSACOLA FL 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 80 2(82) X(82) X(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) GFMX 290N 870W 50 24 2(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 1(28) GFMX 290N 870W 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) MOBILE AL 34 33 30(63) 2(65) 1(66) 1(67) 1(68) 1(69) MOBILE AL 50 2 13(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) MOBILE AL 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 48 34(82) 2(84) X(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) GULFPORT MS 50 3 35(38) 3(41) X(41) 1(42) 1(43) 1(44) GULFPORT MS 64 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) BURAS LA 34 79 18(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) BURAS LA 50 22 66(88) 1(89) X(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) BURAS LA 64 4 49(53) 1(54) 1(55) X(55) 1(56) X(56) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 94 3(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) GFMX 280N 890W 64 55 23(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) JACKSON MS 34 3 32(35) 13(48) 1(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52) JACKSON MS 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 43 51(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 71(74) 6(80) 1(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 34(34) 8(42) X(42) 1(43) X(43) 1(44) GFMX 280N 910W 34 59 27(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) 1(88) GFMX 280N 910W 50 5 37(42) 2(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) GFMX 280N 910W 64 1 14(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 1(19) X(19) BATON ROUGE LA 34 11 73(84) 10(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) BATON ROUGE LA 50 1 50(51) 20(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) 1(74) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 17(17) 17(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) NEW IBERIA LA 34 7 73(80) 10(90) 1(91) X(91) 1(92) X(92) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 41(41) 26(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 15(15) 21(36) 1(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 930W 34 4 25(29) 10(39) 1(40) 1(41) 1(42) 1(43) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 9( 9) 24(33) 7(40) 3(43) 1(44) 1(45) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 24(25) 25(50) 4(54) 2(56) X(56) X(56) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 1 10(11) 16(27) 4(31) 3(34) 1(35) 1(36) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 5(26) 4(30) 2(32) X(32) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) 1(11) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) FREEPORT TX 34 X 6( 6) 10(16) 4(20) 4(24) 2(26) 1(27) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) 3(20) 2(22) 1(23) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN