000 FONT12 KNHC 300858 PWSAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 0900 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 8 13 45 TROP DEPRESSION X X X X 12 15 19 TROPICAL STORM 1 1 1 3 26 32 14 HURRICANE 99 99 99 97 53 40 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 7 6 13 20 17 5 HUR CAT 2 21 19 14 26 15 10 5 HUR CAT 3 69 55 47 36 12 8 6 HUR CAT 4 6 16 28 19 5 4 4 HUR CAT 5 1 2 4 4 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 105KT 110KT 115KT 110KT 100KT 70KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) MARATHON FL 34 5 11(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) 1(22) KEY WEST FL 34 7 22(29) 5(34) 1(35) 1(36) X(36) 1(37) KEY WEST FL 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KEY WEST FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 2 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) 1(20) FT MYERS FL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) 1(18) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) 1(19) 1(20) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) 1(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 2(16) 1(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 9(25) 3(28) 2(30) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 7(32) 2(34) 1(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 12(28) 3(31) 2(33) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 24(39) 5(44) 2(46) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 17(57) 3(60) 2(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) 2(25) 1(26) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 31(45) 6(51) 1(52) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) 2(20) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 36(52) 6(58) 2(60) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 5(26) 1(27) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) 39(64) 6(70) 2(72) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 5(40) 1(41) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 3(22) 1(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 41(50) 25(75) 3(78) 1(79) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 24(47) 3(50) 2(52) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 1(30) 1(31) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 10(34) 1(35) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 42(57) 7(64) 1(65) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33) 1(34) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) 1(16) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 35(59) 4(63) 1(64) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 27(34) 4(38) 2(40) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) 1(23) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 38(47) 10(57) 2(59) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 6(26) X(26) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 11(57) 2(59) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) 1(27) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 28(35) 7(42) 2(44) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 1(20) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) 1(12) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 17(27) 2(29) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 12(37) 3(40) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) 3(33) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) 3(29) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) 3(27) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 3(27) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 3(19) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 3(16) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 19 55(74) 4(78) X(78) 1(79) X(79) X(79) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 2 33(35) 5(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 14(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HAVANA 34 65 20(85) X(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) 1(87) HAVANA 50 10 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 1(38) X(38) HAVANA 64 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLE OF PINES 50 84 9(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) ISLE OF PINES 64 55 20(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) CIENFUEGOS 34 63 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 1(66) X(66) CIENFUEGOS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND CAYMAN 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 50 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE