000 FONT12 KNHC 252034 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 4 6 15 TROP DEPRESSION 1 6 7 6 10 11 22 TROPICAL STORM 77 56 54 49 48 44 44 HURRICANE 22 37 36 43 38 39 19 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 21 33 30 32 26 26 15 HUR CAT 2 1 3 4 7 9 8 2 HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 3 3 3 1 HUR CAT 4 1 X 1 1 1 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 50KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 6(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 7(22) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 7(20) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 3(16) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 3(24) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 8(28) 4(32) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 16(26) 6(32) 2(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 4(20) 2(22) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 6(22) 2(24) 2(26) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 10(23) 5(28) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 19(32) 8(40) 3(43) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 6( 7) 29(36) 14(50) 7(57) 2(59) 1(60) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) 4(24) X(24) 1(25) GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 4(14) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 2(22) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 7(18) 3(21) 1(22) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LES CAYES 34 2 45(47) 14(61) 3(64) 1(65) 1(66) X(66) LES CAYES 50 X 16(16) 13(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) 1(33) LES CAYES 64 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 8 49(57) 5(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) 1(66) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X 17(17) 4(21) 1(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 63 7(70) 1(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) 1(73) CAPE BEATA 50 13 7(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 1(21) CAPE BEATA 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) 1(14) SANTO DOMINGO 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH