000 FONT12 KNHC 051452 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 2 2 3 TROP DEPRESSION 6 7 7 7 6 7 10 TROPICAL STORM 90 78 65 51 42 39 41 HURRICANE 4 15 28 42 51 51 46 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 13 24 31 32 32 28 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 7 12 12 11 HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 6 6 6 HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 1 1 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN