000 FONT12 KNHC 282031 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 2100 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 171N 509W 34 48 8(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) 1(57) 12 171N 509W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 171N 509W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 182N 524W 34 4 21(25) 7(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) 24 182N 524W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 182N 524W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 192N 537W 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) 6(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) 36 192N 537W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 36 192N 537W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 203N 550W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) 48 203N 550W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 203N 550W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 225N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) 2(18) 72 225N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 72 225N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 240N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 96 240N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 96 240N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 255N 615W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 120 255N 615W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 120 255N 615W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 30 30 30 30 30 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA