000 FONT12 KNHC 272033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 155N 498W 34 64 15(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) 1(80) 12 155N 498W 50 17 5(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 12 155N 498W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 168N 515W 34 4 41(45) 11(56) 2(58) 2(60) X(60) X(60) 24 168N 515W 50 X 13(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 24 168N 515W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 36 178N 528W 34 1 12(13) 26(39) 7(46) 3(49) X(49) 1(50) 36 178N 528W 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 36 178N 528W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 187N 540W 34 X 3( 3) 14(17) 15(32) 6(38) 1(39) 1(40) 48 187N 540W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) 48 187N 540W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 205N 555W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 11(23) 7(30) 2(32) 72 205N 555W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 72 205N 555W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 96 225N 565W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 7(20) 3(23) 96 225N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 96 225N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 240N 585W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 120 240N 585W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 120 240N 585W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 45 45 45 40 40 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA