000 FONT12 KNHC 252032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM KAREN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007 2100 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 115N 419W 34 42 14(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 12 115N 419W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 115N 419W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 123N 446W 34 1 41(42) 13(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 24 123N 446W 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) 24 123N 446W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 133N 471W 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) 9(54) 3(57) 1(58) X(58) 36 133N 471W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 9(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) 36 133N 471W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 147N 488W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 25(42) 11(53) 2(55) X(55) 48 147N 488W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) 48 147N 488W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 175N 510W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 23(32) 8(40) 2(42) 72 175N 510W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) 1(17) 72 175N 510W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 96 200N 525W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 12(26) 4(30) 96 200N 525W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 96 200N 525W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 120 225N 535W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21) 120 225N 535W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 120 225N 535W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 55 60 60 55 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH