000 FONT11 KNHC 190838 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162019 0900 UTC SAT OCT 19 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NESTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 24(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 41(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 38(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 38(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X 4( 4) 32(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 10(10) 27(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 21(21) 13(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 28(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 21(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 11(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 8 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) ST MARKS FL 34 69 X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) APALACHICOLA 34 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER AVILA