000 FONT11 KNHC 292052 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC TUE SEP 29 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 9(13) 7(20) 1(21) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 23(34) 5(39) 1(40) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 19(30) 4(34) X(34) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 31(58) 3(61) X(61) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 3(26) X(26) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 5( 5) 28(33) 21(54) 27(81) 2(83) X(83) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 21(46) 3(49) X(49) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 23(42) 3(45) X(45) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 3(17) X(17) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH