000 FONT11 KNHC 192034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012012 2100 UTC SAT MAY 19 2012 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 9 18 24 NA TROP DEPRESSION 6 19 25 29 24 29 NA TROPICAL STORM 90 74 63 54 49 41 NA HURRICANE 3 6 7 8 9 6 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 6 7 7 8 5 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 14(18) 6(24) X(24) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 15(23) 3(26) X(26) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 12(27) 1(28) X(28) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 7(13) 12(25) 8(33) 1(34) X(34) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CHARLESTON SC 34 1 8( 9) 14(23) 9(32) 4(36) 1(37) X(37) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN