000 FONT11 KNHC 010854 PWSAT1 HURRICANE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC SAT OCT 01 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 3 11 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X X 10 29 NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 3 9 65 52 NA NA HURRICANE 99 97 90 22 8 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 5 26 41 18 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 41 44 34 3 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 51 24 14 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 4 3 3 1 X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 95KT 90KT 60KT 45KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 12(12) 21(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 5 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BERMUDA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART