000 FONT11 KNHC 290849 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC THU SEP 29 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X X 1 6 27 TROP DEPRESSION 2 2 2 2 4 20 36 TROPICAL STORM 82 65 38 34 38 57 35 HURRICANE 16 33 60 64 58 18 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 15 28 46 41 39 14 2 HUR CAT 2 1 3 10 15 13 2 X HUR CAT 3 1 1 4 6 5 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 60KT 70KT 75KT 75KT 55KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 4(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 3(23) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH