000 FONT11 KNHC 232055 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 9 10 11 9 TROP DEPRESSION 3 15 19 30 27 27 24 TROPICAL STORM 90 75 68 54 54 53 52 HURRICANE 7 8 9 8 10 9 15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 7 8 7 8 8 13 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) BARBUDA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART