000 FONT11 KNHC 230241 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 6 8 9 10 12 TROP DEPRESSION 6 25 28 28 26 26 29 TROPICAL STORM 90 68 61 55 55 54 49 HURRICANE 5 5 6 9 11 10 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 5 5 7 9 9 9 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 2 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG