000 FONT11 KNHC 210844 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011 0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 3 4 6 11 17 TROP DEPRESSION 11 15 18 20 22 26 33 TROPICAL STORM 86 75 69 62 58 54 44 HURRICANE 2 9 10 14 15 10 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 8 8 12 12 8 5 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 2 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN